Tesla's Solar Roof is way off initial install goals, according to Wood Mackenzie report

Tesla CEO Elon Musk debuted the Tesla Solar Roof to much fanfare in 2016. Tesla aimed to manufacture 1,000 Solar Roofs per week by late 2019 and subsequently announced an installation goal of 1,000 Solar Roofs per week in early 2020.

Industry analysts Wood Mackenzie estimate that, since the launch of the Tesla Solar Roof in 2016, roughly 3,000 Solar Roofs have been installed in the United States — a total capacity of nearly 30 MWdc. Average installations per week were just 21 in 2022. The largest quarter for installations was the first quarter of 2022, which saw 32 systems installed per week.

"The Tesla Solar Roof, an innovative roofing system made of glass tiles with embedded photovoltaic cells, attracted considerable attention after its initial launch several years ago. But granular installation data has always been elusive, making it challenging to analyze the product's growth – until now," said Max Issokson, research analyst and lead author of Wood Mackenzie's ‘Five Years In: Tesla Solar Roof deployments miss expectations’ report.

"Wood Mackenzie's distributed solar practice has utilized its proprietary project-level datasets to aggregate installation totals for the Solar Roof for the first time. The analysis shows that Tesla has missed stated growth expectations."

Tesla Solar Roof capacity installed by year, 2017-2022

Source: Wood Mackenzie

With an estimated 5 million roofs built every year across the country, the Solar Roof held less than 0.03% of the total roofing market in 2022, according to Wood Mackenzie findings. And the Tesla Solar Roof does have competition, most notably from GAF Energy, a prominent residential roofing company. GAF also sells a solar roofing product known as the Timberline Solar roofing system directly to its roofing customers.

Issokson added: "Other products may take the lead in building-integrated solar roofing products. GAF Energy's Timberline Solar roofing system is better positioned to achieve widespread adoption. The product is faster and easier to install, and the company captures customers when they are considering roof replacements."

"As the residential solar industry continues to grow, solar roofing solutions will play an important role in offering customers flexibility and alternatives to conventional modules. The future potential of Tesla's Solar Roof will rely on the company's ability to simplify and streamline installations and tap into a broader customer base," Issokson concluded.

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